Road to 2012 – Post NH Pre SC

Welcome to another ‘Road to 2012’ – what Pundits overlook, and what we notice

NEW HAMPSHIRE:  While it didn’t offer the roller-coaster of Iowa caucus, the early call for Romney allowed the media pundits the chance to throw in comments which didn’t come to pass, but never chose to clarify. When the early reports of NH emerged, Nate Silver of the NY Times was quick to observe that the numbers would be down for the GOP than in 2008, as well as an enthusiasm gap for the GOP field. The final number actually revealed the NH GOP votes were up 246,252 from 2008’s 239,315.  Not to be outdone, NPR also trumpeted a general yawnfest’ over the GOP field, ignoring the overall lack of interest for the Democratic NH Primary which showed a significant reduction of voter turn out. Compared to the 287,527 DEM votes in 2008, Obama gained NH with only 82% or 48,970, 55,845 less than his 2nd place showing 4 years prior. Also, given the lack of excitement over the Democratic race, disenchanted independents NH voters spilled into the GOP Primary, all which gravitated towards Paul, Huntsman, and Romney.  Overall Romney gained more votes than McCain who won NH in 2008, while second place Ron Paul received 37952 more votes than his own 2008 results.

IS USA THE NEW VENEZUELA? One factor that has allowed Hugo Chavez to repeatedly consolidate his power base is Venezuelan gerrymandering, all thanks to a provision in the Venezuelan Constitution that allows non-citizen voting in elections. Needless to say, Chavez has expanded upon this clause, and President Chávez’s re-elected government was built on backs of foreign nationals voters, primarily Colombians. Every Venezuelan election sees the naturalizing of thousands of foreign nationals, all added to combat existing domestic resentment in Venezuela. When the Obama administration recently has extended temporary protected status to El Salvadoran nationals illegally in the United States, one can’t help but think of Obama’s fist bumping pal in Venezuela. When 215,000 are saved from deportation until 2013, it wouldn’t be a stretch to think how many other illegals foreign nationals will stay in time to receive their ballots in 2012?, or rather who needs ACORN when you control government departments.

NEWT’S LAST STAND: There is an unwritten rule in politics, that is to say anything to get elected. Since losing his front runner status in Iowa, failing to place in New Hampshire, and now his footing  in South Carolina, Newt’s smear Romney tactic would make Micheal Moore or Obama smile from ear to ear. When the appearance of a capitalism hating Republican started to back-fire on Gingrich in SC, he maintained it was wrong to attack Romney over his role at Bain Capital, then to claim he wasn’t backing down. If Santorum does take 2nd place in SC, then Newt’s poor showings should be enough to signal his exit from the race. If he stays in any longer, it will only fuel speculation of his 3rd Party run, or act as the residential GOP Romney critic.


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