Welcome to another ‘Road to 2012′ – what Pundits overlook, and what we notice
South Carolina: While Newt did take the win, South Carolina also opens itself up to newer scrutiny. Unlike the New Hampshire where unregistered/independents made up 47% of the vote, the open Primary allowed registered Democrats and Independents to vote in GOP field. According to exit polling, one in five identified themselves as Democrat (20%), while other data reported only 29% non-Republican voting with a mix of Independent (25%) – Democratic (4%) who favored Gingrich. If these estimates are correct, then 118,000 additional voters entered the Primary, shifting the momentum towards Gingrich.
Newt’s Democratic Tactics?: Several prominent Republicans criticized Gingrich for his attack on Romney’s record at Bain Capital, even Romney’s foes like Giuliani ripped the Gingrich tactic as being ‘Alinsky’ not Republican. Gingrich’s numbers rose after the attacks, including his debate performances, ripping moderators and brushing aside his prior infidelity as irrelevant. Most Democratic campaigners include messages of anti-capitalism, personal charisma and side-stepping personal morality, so can it become the new face of Republicanism? In the aftermath of NC, national Republicans may be left with taking the path of defending Newt’s other baggage. So if personal fidelity is no longer an issue for a GOP political candidate, then all prior high-moral gains by Republicans over the behavior of Bill Clinton, Anthony Weiner, and John Edwards need to be reexamined, and an apology offered to all including the ‘bathroom antics’ of fellow Republican Sen. Larry Craig. Needless to say, it might be a little difficult for Newt to charm the party into taking on the nature of their political opposites.
Can Romney Still Seal The Deal?: The one that should really be blamed is Romney himself, the Fox/CNN debates were his to lose, and lose he did. The first debate showed a nervous Romney, and opening up the issue of releasing his tax returns, his response to this question didn’t help. The second debate he side-stepped the chance to comment on Gingrich’s ripping of CNN’s Jon King. If Romney were to drop in and point out that Republicans expect high morals, Gingrich’s response wasn’t going to cut it, it may have swung back to Romney. Even Santorum, a social conservative passed that chance to lap it up, both of which were red meat to their bases. The Mitt stump speech needs an overhaul, and the fire in the belly needs to emerge just as his 2008 CPAC speech when he announced his departure from the field. The factor that is still working in his favor is his organization, and a swag of upcoming Primaries based in locations he gained in 2008.
Florida: Newt will be heading into Florida, and his South Carolina gain that might not offer him such smooth sailing. If Romney avoids a Gingrich surge as in SC, it may be helped by two fronts; 1: Pro-Romney organizations in the state have already influenced early voting with 100K ballots already submitted. 2: Avoiding a Gingrich debate surge, especially if moderators become weary of getting bitten like their CNN/Fox colleagues, who stop allowing Gingrich to devour themselves. These factors alone may swing Florida towards Romney, and then comes the true test of Gingrich as he heads into a Primary season with several Romney strongholds (Nevada, Maine, Colorado, Minnesota, and Michigan) at the beginning. All of these races will be without the help of GOP Debates, and the full impact of organization fumbles like missing out filing for on the Missouri and Virginia races will be felt.
Super Tuesday 2012: If Romney stays steady, by taking a sizable a Delegate count, the gloss from the Gingrich’s SC win may be lost in the process, and Super Tuesday may see Romney with easy gains in Idaho, Massachusetts, North Dakota (not to mention that 2 horse race in Virginia). That means Newt will most likely need to spend a lot of time in Georgia, Ohio, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Vermont in order to stop Romney’s competitiveness in the delegate count. Increased difficulty will be seen for Gingrich, if Romney’s victories provide increased momentum leading into Super Tuesday in those competitive states. If that is the case, Gingrich will be challenging Romney daily for a Lincoln–Douglas debate. If that is the case, the strategy for Romney is a political Fabian strategy, starve the debater through continuous losses in the primaries.
Craig Edwards
