Five ways to lose the Senate majority

By:  David Catanese

Sen. Evan Bayh’s stunning decision Monday to pass on a reelection campaign in Indiana is the latest blow to a Senate Democratic majority that is suddenly within striking distance for the GOP.

While the retirements of Sen. Byron Dorgan (D-N.D.) and Sen. Chris Dodd (D-Conn.) had a clear political logic to them—both involved vulnerable incumbents badly trailing their prospective opponents, according to publicly released polling—Bayh’s calculus was less obvious since he had a comfortable double-digit cushion and a nearly $13 million head start.

Either way, the two-term senator’s departure now places 10 Democratic-held Senate seats at risk—if all are swept under by a November GOP wave, Republicans are back in control of the Senate.

The lesson of the tumultuous last 45 days is that the contours of the political landscape can change in an instant—and a death, a retirement, or a top candidate’s decision not to run can wreak havoc on the best laid political plans.

With that in mind, here’s a list of 5 developments that would make the Democratic hold on the Senate even more tenuous:

The situation in Arkansas continues to deteriorate

By most measures, Democratic Sen. Blanche Lincoln is checking all the boxes as she gears up to run for a third term. She’s made staffing additions to the campaign squad, boasts a healthy $5 million dollar war chest, and a spokeswoman reports the senator is planning a headquarters grand opening on the same day she files for re-election in two weeks.

While Lincoln’s office dismisses speculation that she will be the next incumbent to drop, Bayh’s unexpected bombshell is a reminder that the act of gearing up for a campaign doesn’t necessarily guarantee an incumbent will run again.

Unlike in Bayh’s case, however, it’s not entirely clear whether Lincoln’s retirement would help or hinder the cause. Her standing in the polls seems near terminal: a recent Public Policy Polling survey had her trailing Republican Rep. John Boozman by a jaw-dropping 23 points. Other automated polls have shown her trailing lesser-known GOP foes.

In Connecticut, Democrats vastly improved their chances in November when Sen. Christopher Dodd decided not to seek reelection and Attorney General Richard Blumenthal stepped into his shoes. Blumenthal now holds commanding leads over the same Republicans who were shown to be trouncing Dodd.

There is a potential Arkansas Democratic candidate with statewide elected experience who could fit the bill: Lt. Gov. Bill Halter. But Halter is no Blumenthal—the outside-the-state progressive forces that are already clamoring for Halter to challenge Lincoln in a primary may not be an asset to him in a general election in conservative-minded Arkansas.

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