[Editor's note: This column was written June 2009. It is as up to date in it's analysis as if it was written this weekend]
By: Colleen O’Connor
Few believe that any Republican can win the governorship of one of the country’s most dependably Democratic states—California.
I beg to differ. It could happen.
Everything seems to be in the Democrats favor;
• Lopsided party registration; ( 44.6 percent = Democrats; 31.1 percent = Republicans, 20 percent = Declines to State; and 4.4 percent = Other , i.e., American Independent and Green Parties);
• Seasoned political talent for contenders (San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom, Attorney General and former Governor Jerry Brown, Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigoso;
• Dominance in the state legislature; (both controlled by Democratic majorities);
• A popular President Obama; a legendary fundraiser at the helm of the state party apparatus (former Representative and State Senator, John Burton) as well as home to House Speaker, Nancy Pelosi.
How much more political firepower can one party have?
How can the Democrats possibly lose to a Republican newcomer like Meg Whitman?
And who is she, anyway?
Whitman is the former CEO of the on-line auction site, eBAY. She is herself, New York-born, Princeton and Harvard educated, a billionaire, 52 years of age, and currently the recipient of flattering stories in several business news magazines. She is the protégé of former Republican Presidential candidate and Massachusetts Governor, Mitt Romney, and a campaign adviser to Republican Presidential nominee, John McCain—both of whom have already endorsed her, thereby almost clearing the field of all but one other billionaire primary opponent.
So, she has the Republican heavyweights supporting her bid, enough personal income to fund her own campaign, and some training time on the campaign trail.
Jerry Brown takes her seriously enough to ridicule her campaign as, “I ran a business. I can buy a campaign. I have zero experience in government. I want to take on the most difficult state job in America. Therefore, make me governor.’ That’s her campaign,” he says.
As a Jeffersonian Republican, (”that government governs best that governs least”), Whitman wants to “run California like a business” — hardly new. However, she opposed all of Schwarzenegger’s ballot budget propositions, thus siding with the popular outcome.
Still, how does she win the governorship?
Easy. Gov. Schwarzenegger can win it for her.
As Schwarzenegger continues to propose hugely unpopular, even if necessary, cuts to the state budget, the seething anger among all classes of the electorate will be primed for another recall election. High-pitched squabbling over a seemingly intractable budget has most of California’s voters on edge. Add more job losses, plant closings, and falling state revenues, and the stew thickens. The Republicans sense this.
In fact, five recall petitions against the Governor have already been registered with the California Secretary of State’s office. Money and misery love petition signings.
Together they may produce an encore performance of our last recall election—the one that ousted the unpopular Democratic Governor, Gray Davis, and elected the Republican Governor, Arnold Schwarzenegger,—with less than 50 percent of the vote.
In a recall scenario, the electorate only needs a majority of “YES” votes to oust the current Governor, and a simple plurality of votes for a candidate to get elected!
Put simply, if all the current candidates stay in the race on the Democratic side (a serious possibility) and the only woman and Republican candidate is Meg Whitman (also a very real possibility), she only needs approximately 38 percent of likely voters to win!
Ironically, the key to a Republican victory for Meg Whitman, is an instant replay of Schwarzenegger’s original win.
Republicans are shrewd enough chess players to attempt this checkmate move again. As long as the Democrats are preoccupied fighting The Terminator and his budget cuts, while battling on behalf of their constituents who about to lose their state funding, the Republicans are free to gather petition signatures, and try another stealth win in an otherwise difficult state.
Add to this dynamic, the rising tide of “independent” voters, Ms. Whitman’s appeal to women (many of whom are still irritated at the rather shabby treatment of both Hillary Clinton and Sarah Palin, and want some history making news of their own) and you can easily put together a perfect storm that leads to Meg Whitman occupying the Governor’s mansion.
Read Complete Article at SDNN.com
Related Listening: Colleen O’Connor interview Solid Principles Podcast 19
Tags: Colleen O'Connor, eBay, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, Gov. Jerry Brown, Hillary Clinton, Meg Whitman, Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin, SDNN, Sen. John McCain, Speaker Nancy Pelosi